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EmergentSustainability


1. The goal

From Our Common Future, 1987, aka the Brundtland Report:

"Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."

The UN Millenium Development Goals:

2. The old way: The Green Revolution

                          advanced research centers
                                    |
                                    |
                                    V
                       national ag research programs
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                                    |
                                    V
                             extension programs
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                                    |
                                    V
                                 farmers

3. Integration

From Jeffrey Sayer and [WWW]Bruce Campbell. 2004. The Science of Sustainable Development: Local Livelihoods and the Global Environment. Cambridge UP.

4. Scale

[WWW]Lovell et al. 2002

Scale-effect examples quoted from Sayer and Campbell:

5. Adaptive management

[WWW]http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/amhome/Amdefs.htm

6. Simulation vs representation

From Gonzalo Frasca. 2003. "Simulation versus narrative: introduction to ludology." In Mark J.P. Wold and Bernard Perron, eds., The Video Game Theory Reader, Routledge.


(Similar article available online: [WWW]Frasca 1999)

7. Simulation case studies

From [WWW]Lynam et al. 2002

7.1. Zimbabwe

7.1.1. Study goals
7.1.2. Agreed-on broad management goals
7.1.3. Sub-objectives feeding a broad management goal

http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol5/iss2/art24/figure1.gif

(Sub-objectives associated with the community objective of resource conservation and their associated importance scores.)

7.1.4. Clearly defined objectives
7.1.5. Factos affecting those objectives
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol5/iss2/art24/figure2.gif

(Spidergram of factors affecting the amount of graze and browse available to livestock in Mahuwe Ward, Zimbabwe.)

http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol5/iss2/art24/figure3.gif

(Factors affecting the local acceptance of management plans developed through the research process. Numbers on the spidergram arms indicate the relative importance of each factor at each level.)

7.1.6. Building the Bayesian network

7.2. Senegal

7.2.1. Project goal
7.2.2. Role-playing game

http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol5/iss2/art24/figure5.gif

(Illustration of map for Ngnith Village, Senegal, used in a role game. Each month, the player comes and places a mark on the map to reflect his position on the spatial grid.)

7.2.3. Algorithm for RPG and for computer simulation
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol5/iss2/art24/figure6.gif

(General algorithm of the role game and the model. At each time step (monthly), all agents look for a good place to make crops or to harvest pasture. The agents represent the actors, who may be farmers or herders. At ime step 1 (July, in reality), they look for a good place for the wet season crop, and time step 6, they look for a good place for the dry season crop. At the end of the year, there is a regeneration of the resource.)

7.2.4. Computer implementation of RPG as simulation

http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol5/iss2/art24/figure7.gif

(The initial map of Ngnith village, Senegal. The lake is in blue and water holes are blue dots.)

http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol5/iss2/art24/figure8.gif

(End of a yearly simulation. Black dots are the crops and white dots are areas where resources have been consumed. On this screen copy, one can see that the herders who have no access to the lake go west.)

7.2.5. The actual result